Monday, October 10, 2005

pinions of buddy don: reality on the rise!

ye mite coulda dun notissd how reality aint no big frien of the bush add ministrayshun, witch thats why they dont cotton to scientists that aint drunk thar koolaid. seems that them facks is biased agin sum of the thangs they dun been a'claimin to be true.

as a lil reeminder, here is the scientifick method agin, jes in case ye ever missd it:
  1. obsurv sum part of the worl, women fer instunts
  2. make a hype-o-thesis bout how to splain it
  3. use yer hype-o-thesis to perdick how other parts of the worl wood ack, other women fer instunts
  4. test yer hype-o-thesis n modify it accordin to how close yer perdickshun cum to bein rite
  5. repeat steps 3 and 4 till ye git a perdickshun that wurks ever time.
as ye mite member, back in summer of ought 2, thay wuz a big fussn fite bout whuther we should invade iraq in retaliayshun fer osama bin laden cunvintsin 15 saudis n four other non-iraqi folks to crash airplanes into the worl trade center n pentagon. even then sum or yer reality-based folks wuz of the pinion that we orta go after them that attacked us, but the add ministrayshun dint see it thataway. they wuz cunvintsed saddam hussein had weppons of mass deestruckshun n that he wuz a'plannin to use em agin us or his naybors, speshly israel.

them reality-based folks wonted to foller that scientifick method to find out ifn saddam really did have the weppons n the means to attack us. they brung em in a group that duz that verr thang fer a livin, the iaea folks frum the united nayshuns. they wuz a'doon a purty good job n turnt out they wuz rite whenever they sed thay wuznt no weppons of mass deestruckshun to be found in iraq. we have since verrifide thar claims.

i am happy that they finely gut a lil good publicity fer whut they dun, witch mayhap ye dun read bout it in that articull name of Nuclear Arms Inspectors Get Peace Prize; Nobel Committee Honors Work of Director and Staff of U.N. Agency:
The International Atomic Energy Agency and its director, Mohamed ElBaradei, won the 2005 Nobel Prize for Peace yesterday for their efforts to prevent the spread of atomic weapons and promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

The award for the 63-year-old ElBaradei and his army of international inspectors was seen within the U.N.-sponsored organization as a vindication of its work in Iraq before the war and currently in Iran, where they are leading a cautious investigation of that country's nuclear program while promoting diplomacy as a way of resolving the crisis there.

In announcing its selection yesterday at a ceremony in Oslo, the Norwegian Nobel Committee said ElBaradei "stood as an unafraid advocate" for disarmament, relying on diplomacy, rather than confrontation, to rid the world of nuclear threats.
but since it seemd lack the add ministrayshun wuz a'gone invade no matter whut, sum of them reality-based folks gut to puttin out scientifick hype-o-theses bout how the eggspearmint wuz a'gone turn out. they hype-o-thesized that the follerin bad thangs could happen ifn we invaded:
  • we wood make iraq a terrist stagin-area whar would-be suicide bombers wood larn thar craft, how to make car bombs, pick targets, n git tharself reddy to end thar life fer a cawz they sumhow bleeve justifies whut thar a'doon
  • twood becum a recruitin tool fer al qaeda n osama n all them otherns that claims the united states is the grate satan
  • twuz sed that twoodnt be so easy to make them iraqis git along to make a constitushun on a counta how they wuz three differnt ethnick groups that dint bleeve everthang the u.s. wonted em to bleeve, meanin that they orta all jes git along n make a new gummint modeled after ourn n becum a beacon fer democrussy n our way of life
  • finely, twuz perdickted that purty soon our eggspearmint wood result in sum of them terrists that wuz made in iraq wood wonta cum here to ply thar trade
turnt out this eggspearmint has dun proovd to wurk out jes lack sum of them reality-based folks wuz perdictin. fer eggzample, thay wuznt never no suicide attacks in iraq befor we invaded; now thays a'plenty everday. fer a even wurser eggzample, they dun cummenced makin plans to attack us over here (i reckon they dint git the memo that we dun deecided to fite em over thar sos we woodnt half to fite em over here). ye kin read bout that in this here story name of N.Y. Threat Tip Came From Source in Iraq:
The information that led Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg to raise a public alert about a "specific threat" against New York City's subway system originated in Baghdad from an Iraqi informant who approached U.S. authorities in the past two weeks, U.S. officials said yesterday.

While officials in New York and Washington played down the credibility of the threat to varying degrees, the incident appears to be the first reported time that authorities in the United States have openly responded to information gathered in Iraq concerning an alleged domestic terrorist attack since the 2003 U.S. invasion.

According to a senior U.S. military officer, the report originated with an Iraqi informant who voluntarily approached U.S. authorities. Information was developed over the past two weeks, said a Bush administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because analysis is ongoing.

The military officer, who is in Iraq and has access to intelligence reports, said the story that the informant told was very detailed. It alleged a complex international scheme involving about 20 people in different countries, explosives packed in suitcases and a series of attacks targeting New York's transit network.
mayhap ye caint win harts n minds with bullets?

now we gut ourself in a horrbull posishun, whar our army is pinned down jes lack them turks wuz in worl war I, witch ye orta read t.e. lawrences Seven Pillars of Wisdom, whar he led them arabs in attackin them turks a'usin the same tackticks thats bein used today, witch that means ye dont even wonta drive em out, jes to make em suffer as much as possibull in a possishun whar they caint do nuthin but hemmorage money n soljers n equipment.

are we in a verr similar situwayshun? seems lack it frum whut dimcrat senator carl levin has to say in todays washington post in a articull name of Using Our Leverage: The Troops:
As the Iraqi people prepare to vote on a new constitution Saturday, the political situation in that country is highly unstable. There are troubling signs of a split in the political alliance of Kurds and Shiites that has thus far kept Iraq from complete chaos. Sunni Arab leaders, meanwhile, openly call for the constitution to be defeated. And Iraqis from all ethnic groups have lost faith in the transitional government's ability to protect them or provide basic services.

Our hope was that a new constitution would serve to unite the Iraqis, but that has not happened. As Gen. George Casey, commander of U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee recently: "We've looked for the constitution to be a national compact, and the perception now is that it's not, particularly among the Sunni." Casey acknowledged that if a constitution were approved by the majority of Iraqis but disapproved by a strong minority of the Sunni Arabs, it could actually make the situation worse.

Our military leaders have long told us that there can be no purely military solution in Iraq and that a genuine, broad-based political settlement among the Iraqis is essential for success and for the defeat of the insurgency.

There is, however, one point on which leaders of the three main groups in Iraq agree: None of the Iraqi groups wants U.S. troops to leave precipitately. The Shiites want us to stay until Iraqi security forces are strong enough to deal with the insurgency on their own. The Kurds want us to remain for the impending future. And the Sunni Arab leaders want us to stay as a deterrent to those who might seek revenge against them for the actions of Saddam Hussein.

We must use that leverage -- the possibility of an American withdrawal -- to achieve the broad-based political settlement that is essential for defeating the insurgency.
thay wuz a passel of folks a'warnin bout this, but as mr michael gertler of the washington post add mitts in a articull name of A Parting Thought on Iraq, Again, the press dint eggzackly let them reality-based folks git thar argument out:
Much has already been written -- including about two dozen columns of mine -- about the press and the general failure to challenge in prewar coverage. As I look back at the past five years in this job, that is by far the single most important and most disappointing performance by the press, including The Post. And The Post -- along with the Los Angeles Times and the Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service -- was among the best. But it was nowhere near good enough.

The Post is surely one of the top newspapers in the world, and I think it has been on something of a roll during the past two years or so in terms of especially solid and revealing coverage of many subjects that some would prefer not to be covered. But the period before the Iraq war is so important because it was one of those historic, chips-are-down moments when a newspaper, especially one as important as The Post, must commit to using its resources and exercising its responsibilities to probe fully what the government is saying and doing.

As I've noted in previous columns, The Post contributed a fair number of stories that raised questions about the issue of weapons of mass destruction. But too many of these were placed well inside the paper. Several other stories that challenged the official wisdom and unfolded in public were either missed or played down. I have attributed this mostly to what seemed to me to be a lack of alertness on the part of editors who at the time were also undoubtedly focused on preparing for the coming war.

Editors up and down the line are the key to this and, in my view, at times are the weak link between reporters and readers. Reporters are as good as they've ever been. But editors set the tone. They should be experienced and as informed as reporters. They need to contribute to, and transmit, the sense that there are very important stories out there -- whether war or health care or budget deficits or other subjects that affect our lives and future -- and that there is a determination and commitment to get to the bottom of them in a timely fashion.
twuz also sed that usin tortchur woodnt hep us nun, witch ye kin member all them hype-o-theses that wuz writ bout whut twood do to our reputayshun in the worl n whut it could do to endanger our own soljers. mr. bob herbert has writ bout that this mornin in a lil articull name of Who Isn't Against Torture?

point is, we dun had plenty of chants to know frum a scientifick analysis how thangs wuz lackly to wurk out. now that we dun the eggspearmint, invaded, kin we look at the results n larn innythang?

on a counta ifn we dont, reality is only a'gone git uglier. tiz on the rize!

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