Monday, December 13, 2004

pinions of buddy don: borryin trouble n payin too much interst

rumor has it that the soshul securty sky is fallin now on counta how tiz a'gone be a bit short by eethur 2042 (mr bush's soshul securty commishun) or 2052 (gao): ifn we dont do nuthin, twill only be able to pay about 80% of current benefits. to keep it fully solvent till the 22nd centry, twood take a whoppin 0.54% of the GDP, or roughly whut wood be paid in ifn thay wuznt no limit on when ye git to quit payin or less than we are payin to defend ourself agin osama bin laden n al qaeda over in iraq, witch at the moment ye git outta payin payroll taxes fer soshul securty on incum over $87,500.

tiz obvious we a'gone half to fix thisn, mayhap the way we dun with falluja: wipe it out so sumthin better kin be bilt.

but since we dont have no smart bombs to go after the most successful fedrul program ever, we a'gone half to git creative with our math: mayhap tiz whut is ment by fuzzy math? lets count up the savins!
  1. now it costs us 1/10th as much to add minister as twood ifn the private program wuz run frum a central locayshun (lack the gummint) or 1/30th as much as twood cost to add minister ifn wall street firms gits to add minister the funds individually: addin in these costs will make it last longer, rite?
  2. then ye gut the cost of payin the benefits to them folks thats dun retired while yer puttin the money that wood normally pay fer them into private accounts fer whenever they retire: say twood cost a trillion or two.
  3. corse, ye gut to pay interst on the $1-$2 trillion
so lets add it all up:
  1. gittin ss to last till end of century with no private accounts:

    cost = current costs + .54% of GDP + cost of add ministrayshun

  2. gittin ss to last till end of centry with private accounts:

    cost = current costs + ($1-$2 trillion + interest on $1-$2 trillion) + (cost of add ministrayshun * 10 or 30, accordin to witch program is used)
now i aint no eggspurt on fuzzy math, but tiz purty clear that we cum out ahed a'usin the secunt method as long as the market keeps a'gone up bettern it has ever dun yet even ifn price to earnings ratios indicate thays gut to be a correckshun at sum point . . . sooner or later, wurser ifn tiz later.

here's my questchun: will we be allowd to opt outta the new fuzzy math program n keep thangs as they are fer now n still git our benefits?

that way, them that wonts to risk thar money in the stock market kin doot while those of us who member how the widespread losses in the stock market back in the 20s led to the deepreshun in the 30s that led to the soshul securty bein created in the furst place -- well, woodnt we be allowd to keep usin the program as is?

or wood we be forced into takin the freedum to invest in stocks?

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